If there’s one thing GOP presidential frontrunner Donald Trump loves to do more than offend just about everybody, it’s brag about his polling numbers. I have never seen a candidate openly brag about where he stands in the polls as often as Trump.
To his “credit,” he has been the lone dominant Republican candidate for months. Except in one state: Iowa.
Iowa has been the one place where Trump’s performed weaker than he has nationally. At the peak of Ben Carson’s now dying surge, he actually led Trump by 9 points in the Hawkeye State. Now as Carson fades further and further into political oblivion with each passing poll, Ted Cruz has become the newest GOP frontrunner in Iowa.
Naturally, Trump hasn’t taken this news well. In fact, following the release of the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll showing Cruz with a 10 point lead, he went full conspiracy theorist on Twitter:
New CNN Iowa poll — Trump 33, Cruz 20. Everyone else way down! Don't trust Des Moines Register poll- biased towards Trump!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 12, 2015
Yes, he said “towards Trump” when he meant “against.” He’s an idiot, what can I say?
Error aside, Trump’s tweet followed the release of the CNN/ORC poll that showed him with a 13 point advantage, clearly in contrast to what the DMR/Bloomberg poll showed. Though it’s obvious Trump believes that the skew toward Cruz by the DMR/Bloomberg poll is some conspiracy against him.
Obviously one of the two – if not both – had unintentionally found a bad “random sample” (it happens from time to time) that skewed the results. This makes the next question, which poll was more inaccurate?
Well, we have our answer: The CNN/ORC poll showing Trump with a 13 point lead. You know, the one Trump took to Twitter to brag about in his tirade against the DMR/Bloomberg results.
Two new polls out of Iowa, Fox News and Monmouth, both show Cruz ahead of Trump, though neither shows such a disparity between the two candidates as the CNN/ORC or DMR/Bloomberg polls.
In the Fox News poll, Cruz leads Trump by only two points, 28% to 26%. Meanwhile, the Monmouth poll shows Cruz leading by five points, 24% to 19%.
In other words, while both the CNN/ORC and DMR/Bloomberg polls seem to indicate some rather large distances between the two candidates compared to the other two polls, Cruz is the winner in three of the four newest polls.
Well it seems from a tweet sent out Sunday night, Trump’s “confused” as to why Fox News wouldn’t mention the one poll showing him beating Cruz:
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 14, 2015
What an absolute imbecile. Why would Fox News cite a CNN/ORC poll when they have their own poll showing different results? Furthermore, it’s comical how he keeps pushing the CNN/ORC poll, completely ignoring the fact that in three of the last four polls out of Iowa he’s losing to Cruz.
For a bit of perspective, here’s a list of the last 10 winners of the Republican Iowa Caucus:
- 2012: Rick Santorum
- 2008: Mike Huckabee
- 2004: George W. Bush (unopposed)
- 2000: George W. Bush
- 1996: Bob Dole
- 1992: George H.W. Bush (unopposed)
- 1988: Bob Dole
- 1984: Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
- 1980: George H. W. Bush
Only once since 1980 has a non-incumbent Republican candidate gone on to win the general election after winning Iowa and only twice has a non-incumbent actually gone in to become the nominee.
Basically, for Republicans, history tells us that winning Iowa doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot.
But going beyond that, the Fox News and Monmouth results helped to further expose how ridiculously juvenile, insecure and immature Trump is… as are most people who tend to whine about “bias in the polls.” While you hear about this sort of rhetoric from candidates who are trailing all the time, it’s rare you see a leading candidate throw around asinine conspiracy theories about polls as Trump did here.
As with most everything else Trump says, reality debunked the idiotic propaganda he was trying to push.
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