I’ll be the first one to tell people that placing too much importance on polls this far away from the general election is usually pointless. Especially polls that come out right after a party’s convention ends, when presidential candidates always see some sort of positive “bump” in their numbers.
That being said, that doesn’t mean these polls should be completely ignored.
Take for instance the latest Morning Consult poll showing Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 43-40%, which equates to a 7-point bounce following her party’s convention last week. While that’s the number most people will talk about, personally, I’m not placing too much importance on her current overall lead in one poll. It’s still too early to know who the true frontrunner is.
However, some of the other information from this poll is what I found rather interesting.
When it came to male voters, Clinton led Trump by 1 point, which is a 9-point swing from the poll they conducted following the Republican convention. That’s a massive swing in her favor from a demographic of voters who many feel Trump should win fairly easily.
She also gained 4 points among independent voters, which is a sizable chunk considering appealing to independents was an area she struggled with during her primary battle with Bernie Sanders.
Though it’s the 6-point jump in her favorability, from 37% to 43%, that I found most meaningful.
After spending the last year being attacked relentlessly by the far-left and the GOP (well, for the last 25 years when it comes to Republicans), her favorability numbers had taken a huge hit. Many people played this up as a big story, but I’m not sure what anyone expected when one person was enduring hundreds of millions of dollars being spent attacking them by both sides hoping doing so would cost her an election.
One thing I don’t think a lot of people who haven’t been following politics for the last 25 years understand is that Republicans have been trying to slander Hillary Clinton (and Bill, too) since 1992. For Republicans, it’s never really about proving anything that they’ve gone after her on is actually true, they just need to “muddy the waters” enough so that people aren’t sure what is or isn’t true.
For instance, look at Benghazi. Even though a Republican-led investigation just concluded that nothing Clinton could have done would have likely prevented the attack, and Chris Stevens’ own family has said it’s unfair to blame her for what happened, I still get daily messages from Republicans saying she’s a murderer and she let those people die — even though their own party has concluded that’s not true.
But that doesn’t matter; Republicans never cared about proving she did anything wrong, because they knew she didn’t. Their main goal was to do nothing more than spend years making people think she did. For the GOP, it didn’t matter if she was guilty of anything, all they had to do was make people think she was.
If you really sit back and read the long list of conspiracies people have come up with regarding the Clintons, it’s absolute insanity. To listen to their critics, you’d think Bill and Hillary Clinton were more diabolical, powerful and evil than anyone else on the planet.
They’ve supposedly had numerous people killed — or didn’t you know that?
So, the fact that Hillary Clinton’s even managed to be as successful as she has under constant scrutiny is remarkable. Everything she does is analyzed and/or attacked in the media — even what she wears.
The bottom line is, there’s really no mystery surrounding why her favorability numbers took a hit. Especially this past year when many on the far-left also went after her (often buying into right-wing propaganda), hoping it would help Sen. Bernie Sanders win the Democratic party’s nomination.
That’s why I see this 6-point jump as rather significant. This was her first chance to “shine” as the official Democratic nominee for president. All eyes were on her during a moment when she needed to be nearly flawless — and she nailed it.
As expected, there were still critics, but most people (even many on the far-left) loved the speech she gave. It didn’t appease all of her critics (nothing she does will ever appease some of those folks), but I saw quite a few Sanders supporters who said she won them over on Thursday night.
Clinton’s camp still has plenty of work to do, but this speech was a great start toward the path she needs to follow to win this November.
Though there’s another “fun fact” in these numbers. While Clinton’s favorability took a 6-point jump — Trump’s fell 3 points following the RNC’s convention. It’s not a good thing if your favorability numbers drop after a moment that’s specifically designed to improve the way voters view you.
So, while this is just one poll and we still have a long way to go between now and election day, this first post-convention poll was a disaster for Donald Trump during a time where his campaign is beginning to spiral into chaos — again.
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