FiveThirtyEight Just Reminded Everyone How Awful Donald Trump’s Candidacy Is

While many Republicans are defending him now, if Donald Trump isn’t successful on November 8th, it’s going to be rather comical to see how quickly many flee from him almost immediately after Hillary Clinton is declared the winner. You’re going to see many folks who were fairly staunch Trump supporters start spinning realty, claiming that they never really supported him, blaming his unexpected success on the “failed policies of President Obama, Hillary Clinton and Democrats.”



Yes, get ready for it folks, Republicans will blame Obama and Clinton for Trump. In fact, some have already tried doing that.

No matter how the GOP tries to spin Trump’s rise from a joke candidate to the overwhelming winner of their party’s presidential nomination, he is, without a doubt, the worst presidential candidate in modern history — if not ever.

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com reminded everyone of this fact on Wednesday when they pointed out that Donald Trump’s actually doing worse with white voters than Mitt Romney did in 2012:

Four years ago, Romney beat President Obama among white voters by 17 percentage points, according to pre-election polls. That was the largest winning margin among white voters for any losing presidential candidate since at least 1948. Of course, even if Trump did just as well as Romney did, it would help him less, given that the 2016 electorate will probably be more diverse that 2012’s. And to win — even if the electorate remained as white as it was four years ago — Trump would need a margin of 22 percentage points or more among white voters.

But Trump isn’t even doing as well as Romney. Trump is winning white voters by just 13 percentage points, according to an average of the last five live-interviewer national surveys.1 He doesn’t reach the magic 22 percentage point margin in a single one of these polls.

Think about that for a moment.

Romney was a candidate who infamously did terrible when it came to minority voters. Furthermore, he had the largest winning margin among white voters for a losing candidate in over 60 years.

Yet… Trump is doing even worse than that.

If FiveThirtyEight’s “22 percent” projection is to be believed, that means the GOP presidential candidate is trailing nine points behind where he needs to be to more or less break even with Romney based upon the projection that the 2016 electorate will be more diverse than it was in 2012.

Not only that, but if you look at the five polls they used to determine Trump’s 13-point lead (CNN, CBS, Fox News, Monmouth, Quinnipiac), even that number is slightly skewed considering his lead in the Fox News poll is much higher than the others.



I know, you’re all shocked.

At 21 points, his lead in the Fox News poll is 7 points higher than any of the other polls. So, if you factor out that slight “outlier,” his lead among white voters dips to 11 percent. Not a massive difference, but that’s still statistically significant.

But it gets even worse.

Not only is Trump under-performing among white voters when compared to Romney, but he’s actually doing worse than he did just a few weeks ago when he led by 17 points.

Of course, all is not hopeless for “The Donald.” He still continues to do extremely well when it comes to white males without a college degree.

So — there’s that.

However, as FiveThirtyEight pointed out, Trump’s on pace for a record poor performance for a Republican among white voters with a college degree.

Basically, the only reason why Trump’s even remotely competitive in this race is because he’s been propped up by the same demographic (angry, uneducated white males) that are typically at the root of every shameful moment in our nation’s history.

I can almost guarantee everyone that if we could survey several of the most embarrassing moments for this country (slavery, denying women the right to vote, segregation, bans on interracial marriage, opposition to gay rights), uneducated, angry white males were overwhelmingly in support of the wrong side of history each and every single time.

Donald Trump is one of the worst presidential candidates we’ve ever witnessed, and he’s being supported by the same demographic that’s been at the heart of practically every moment in our history that we now look back upon with disgust.

And that’s exactly how we’re going to look back on the 2016 election and the fact that a vile, disgusting buffoon like Donald Trump managed to become so successful.




Allen Clifton

Allen Clifton is a native Texan who now lives in the Austin area. He has a degree in Political Science from Sam Houston State University. Allen is a co-founder of Forward Progressives and creator of the popular Right Off A Cliff column and Facebook page. Be sure to follow Allen on Twitter and Facebook, and subscribe to his channel on YouTube as well.

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  • Hassenbensober

    Trump has no chance. That’s why people attending his rallys outnumber Hillary supporters 20 to 1

    • HairyEyedWordBombThrower

      Rallies don’t matter, voters do. Watch for what happens.

      • Hassenbensober

        There is no enthusiasm for the candidate Hillary. she even has trouble finding volunteers. Do you really think all the people that attend Trump rallies are not going to vote for him?

      • Jo Ann Simmons

        How many of them were paid to attend?

      • Hassenbensober

        You do mean Hillary supporters. She has to do town hall meetings in front of a green screen because no one shows up.

  • ORAXX

    Trump wasn’t even the worst Republican running in the primaries. Ted Cruz would have been much worse. Rick Santorum? Mike Huckabee? The list goes on. Trump is a symptom of a much deeper problem created by the Republican party having spent fifty years turning ever further to the right, and demanding ever more ideological purity. The GOP has painted itself into an ideological corner there will be no easy way out of. They have arrived at a point where they are no longer capable of responsible governance.

  • Brian

    It’s funny. I don’t see Trump’s campaign going out of its way to insult voters or alienate them based on their background. But this is what liberals do. Divide and slander. Stronger together my arse.

    • Look Who’s Sharing

      Really, you don’t see Trump’s campaign insulting or alienating voters?? So Latinos, Muslims, blacks, women and the disabled are not voters in you world?