Even though I’m someone who absolutely loves politics, I’ll fully admit that I cannot wait for the 2016 election to be over. At times, I’ve felt like I was writing about and discussing a reality TV version of politics instead of a legitimate presidential election.
Of course, we all know why that is: Donald Trump.
While other candidates have provided a few outrageous moments over this election season, it’s undeniable that Trump has been the ringleader of this political circus. As a political writer and analyst, it’s become a daily grind simply keeping up with the controversies from Trump and his campaign. When I’m asked by someone if I’ve heard the latest outrageous thing Trump has said, they need to be very specific considering that something idiotic he said in the morning could have been topped by something worse by mid-afternoon.
Needless to say, with the scrutiny intensifying as the general election draws closer, this has all taken a toll on Trump’s campaign. From tweeting out articles based on worthless online polls, to replacing another campaign manager, practically every single day there’s something going on with his campaign.
Well, to put into perspective exactly how dire things are getting for Donald Trump, a new analysis from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has shifted Kansas and South Carolina from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican.”
Now, does that mean Trump is really in danger of losing either state? Probably not. But the simple fact that Trump’s campaign has become such a disaster that extremely red states like Kansas and South Carolina are even remotely drifting away from him is incredibly telling. Especially considering we’ve already seen polls from Georgia, Utah and Arizona that show not only is Trump performing poorly in three very conservative states, but based on poll numbers, he could actually lose those states.
Here’s what the analysis said:
We certainly don’t expect either Kansas or South Carolina to vote Democratic. Still, we have noticed that many deep red states may be preparing to produce lower-than-usual pluralities for Trump. It won’t matter in the Electoral College, of course, but it will be reflected in the national popular vote total.
In other words, while Trump is likely to still win many (if not all) strongly conservative states, if he performs poorly in areas where Republicans traditionally do very well, it would make his loss even more embarrassing. Not only would he almost certainly lose the electoral vote by a very substantial margin, but he would get crushed in the popular vote, as well.
For those wondering, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics currently predicts an electoral victory of 348 to 190 for Clinton. While that wouldn’t be a record by any means, depending on how poorly Trump would perform in the popular vote, that could be where the real humiliation would factor in for his presidential campaign.
There’s still a long way to go between now and November, but unless something drastically unexpected happens between now and then, Donald Trump could be headed toward one of the most lopsided presidential defeats in a long time.