One of my biggest pet peeves in all of politics is when people try to break down polls when they have no idea what they’re doing. While there are many different polling companies out there, not all of them are the same. In fact, many are absolutely worthless.
No poll is 100 percent accurate, but there are still fairly strict rules and procedures a polling company must abide by to produce credible results. That’s what made Donald Trump tweeting out an article from the Wasington Examiner declaring that it’s just a “2-point race” between he and Hillary Clinton so incredibly sad:
‘It’s just a 2-point race, Clinton 38%, Trump 36%’ https://t.co/EzDzJ4EzIN
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 16, 2016
What’s so pathetic about this tweet is that the article is based on an online poll done by Zogby, a polling company well-respecting polling guru Nate Silver once called “the worst pollster in the world.” Here’s what Silver said about Zogby’s online polls:
Zogby, however, also conducts Internet-based polls. These polls are conducted among users who volunteer to participate in them, first by signing up at the Zogby website and then by responding to an e-mail solicitation. These Internet polls, to the extent they rely on voluntary participation, violate the most basic precept of survey research, which is that of the random sample. And as you might infer, they obtain absolutely terrible results.
That’s why online polls are more or less worthless. Most aren’t done with a quality random sample (a key component to any credible poll), so there’s no way to really control who’s responding to these things, which makes their results essentially meaningless.
This is what it’s come down to for Trump after a rather disastrous few weeks, sending out tweets based on articles from the Washington Examiner concerning an online poll from a company Nate Silver called “the worst pollster in the world.” Not only that, even though this poll is garbage, it still has him trailing Clinton.
To put that in another way: Donald Trump has been relegated to “bragging” about polls that show him losing to Hillary Clinton — just not as badly as all the credible ones.
As we’ve seen over the last few weeks as every credible poll that’s been released shows Clinton’s lead growing, the same polls Trump once used to constantly brag about, he now seems to be acting as if they no longer exist. If anything, his campaign and the conservative media has, once again, embraced the usual Republican tradition of claiming polls are “liberally baised.”
However, as we’ve seen from 2008 and 2012 — the polls this close to the election are often quite accurate. Much to the dismay of the Republican party and the conservative media.
But you know things have reached a low point for Donald Trump when, after months of bragging about how “fantastic” his polling numbers looked, he’s now forced to send tweets out concerning worthless, not-at-all credible polls that still show him trailing Hillary Clinton.